Vremenski horizont kao determinanta ekonomskog predviđanja

Abstract

The efficient and quality prediction has the crucial influence on the quality of the business decision and planning processes, on economic state and wanted growth and progress of the each enterprise. The important determination of the business prediction is the time horizon which represents the volume of the time interval in which can be predicted movement of some business phenomena, which have an important influence on the business processes. The growing interest for the research of the future is the result of the fast and radical changes in the economy and society, in whole. Adaptation of numerous and different changes, growing competition and constant improvement of the performances, is the basic condition for the existence and progress of each modern enterprise. Certainty is characteristic of the past and of the known facts, while the future is unpredictable with many amplitudes, changes and uncertainties. The power of the enterprise is increasing with prediction, due to unknown facts of tomorrow. The process of strategic management in whole is, in fact, the process of the time management. The time is the only factor which does not have their own substitute, and contemporary top managers are aware of that and on the occasion of the managing of the business processes and prediction of the future processes and events they pay more and more attention exactly to the research of the time horizon.